Pivot watchers may assume that what Don Rumsfeld called ‘new Europe’ (countries that joined the EU and NATO in latter post USSR years) are concerned at the US Pivot to Asia because the drawdown of America’s commitment to European security will reduce the credibility of the deterrent against Russia on their borders. Some members of ‘old Europe’ further west are less concerned about Russia than threats from North Africa or the middle East, and might welcome the opportunity the Pivot offers to give impetus to Europe’s Common Foreign and Security Policy. But surely New Europe will oppose the pivot to the extent that it might leave them having to fend for themselves?
I suppose that depends on Russia’s behavior. Judging from recent events, it occurred to me that exactly the opposite may be true.
Russia is conducting massive military exercises in its Far East, which some say are aimed at intimidating East Asians. If you are on Russia’s western borders, wouldn’t it make sense to make common cause with your counterparts in Japan, the Republic of Korea and perhaps China too? If this continues, wouldn’t it be logical to expect the Baltic states, Norway, Poland, etc. reach out to explore various modes of defence cooperation with Tokyo and Seoul? And perhaps also Beijing?
Might the geo-strategic perspective of the New Europeans become a main driver of Europe’s interest in Asian security and Europe’s own Pivot?